The Never Trump Economist Does Not Get It

In an October 6 "Leaders" article titled "China's designs on Europe," The Economist said the following: "On issues such as climate change and trade, China has acted more responsibly than the Trump administration, seeking to uphold global accords rather than chuck grenades at them."The ignorance of this statement is truly remarkable coming from anyone north …

FT Midterms Analysis

There are 29 Republican-held House seats currently rated toss-up by The Cook Political Report. If each side wins the seats "likely" or "leaning" in their direction, Democrats need to win just 8 of the 29 toss-ups to reach the magic number 23.

Trump Single-Handedly Destroys Elizabeth Warren

The anti-Trump crowd is fond of claiming they are "determined, not deranged" (to paraphrase the unfortunately named Charles Blow of The NYT). I'm fond of saying that the denial of the existence of "Trump Derangement Syndrome" ("TDS") is a strong indicator that one is possessed of the syndrome. It's not rocket science - all it takes …

What Does It Actually Mean To Be A Democrat?

In an op-ed to the Portland Press Herald this week I included the fact I am currently registered as a Democrat in the author's description box. I did so opportunistically in order to properly orient readers' interpretation of the article, which viewed in a vacuum could have been viewed as coming from a partisan Republican. …

President Trump Single-Handedly Resuscitated The “Blue Wave”

On June 9 I wrote that the "Blue Wave" was still dead, despite a widening in the Generic Ballot to D+7.6, due to the fact GOP strength at the ballot box was likely to be tied to economic optimism as reflected in and confirmed by the stock market. From my career perch as a money …

Ranked Choice Voting Analysis: Adam Cote Is (Likely) Toast

Round 1 of the Maine Democratic gubernatorial primary concluded as follows (516 of 584 precincts reporting): Janet Mills: 40,576 (33.1%) Adam Cote: 34,800 (28.4%) Elizabeth Sweet: 20,042 (16.3%) Mark Eves: 17,732 (14.5%) Other 3: 9,519 (7.8%) If we assume that everyone ranked all seven candidates, and that voters for the "other 3" candidates split their …

The Blue Wave Is Still Dead

According to a barrage of recent generic ballot polling the Democrats' lead has widened out again to D+7.6. Democrats should not take comfort. The anti-Trump, single-payer platform is NOT working. The chief reason for the widening is (likely) a weak stock market. Generic ballot polling acts with a lag versus the market, and the market …

2018: The Year of Trade – Part 6

I jumped the gun in my last post on trade policy. I believed the Trump Administration had reached a deal behind the scenes based on Steve Mnuchin's comments on Fox News Sunday. Turns out President Trump turned on a dime soon after due to the rampant speculation that he had gone soft on China. I …

Republicans Are Deeply Misguided Regarding The FBI Informant

The constant swirl of reporting and partisan bickering about the Trump/Russia collusion case belies the simplicity of what actually happened: George Papadopoulos learned that the Russians had dirt on Hillary Clinton in April 2016 from Joseph Mifsud George Papadopoulos blabbed about the "dirt" to an Australian diplomat in May 2016 After learning that Papadopoulos received …

Roger Stone Is A Liar – Part 3

Roger Stone was on Meet The Press this morning attempting to thwart the effects of Mueller's tightening noose. It did not go so well. Stone claimed that his October 2016 tweets in advance of WikiLeaks release of hacked Podesta emails were based on publicly available information provided by Julian Assange in a June 2016 interview. …