2018: The Year of Trade – Part 6

I jumped the gun in my last post on trade policy. I believed the Trump Administration had reached a deal behind the scenes based on Steve Mnuchin's comments on Fox News Sunday. Turns out President Trump turned on a dime soon after due to the rampant speculation that he had gone soft on China. I …

2018: The Year Of Trade – Part 5

This morning buffoon of a National Economic Council Director, Larry Kudlow, gave a bumbling overview of the trade framework the US agreed to with China yesterday on ABC This Week. Thankfully Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin cleared things up on Fox News Sunday. Tariffs have been put on hold on both sides, and China has committed …

Democrats’ Path To A Midterm Loss Widens And “2018: The Year Of Trade – Part 4”

In a March 25 post on the state of trade negotiations I said: "This is precisely why the stock market is holdings up quite well in the face of D.C. “chaos”. The market knows full well this is the most business-friendly administration in modern American history and that it will not allow the globe to …

2018: The Year of Trade – Part 3

As the entire world melts down over President Trump's eminently predictable (see here and here), yet seemingly erratic moves on trade policy, I am thoroughly enjoying sitting back and analyzing the ins and outs of the much-needed shake-up in global trade practices. After more than a year in office, 99 percent of political observers still …

2018: The Year of Trade – Part 2

2018 continues to shape up as the "year of trade," with the Trump Administration set to open the year with aggressive action against China and other free trade free riders. Per usual, the mere questioning of America's trade agreements elicits screams of American global economic and free trade retrenchment, but with the most jobs/growth/business-friendly administration's …

The Wall Street Journal: Mr. Trump’s Trade War

This week's "Saturday Essay" by Douglas Irwin of The WSJ captures well the thrust of President Trump's trade policy: "The president is right to emphasize reciprocity. His mistake is to focus on the balance of trade with individual countries rather than on the rules of market access." In my on-going trade policy self-study, this is one of …

The Economist: Does China play fair?

Good short-form piece by The Economist from back in September, outlining a three-pronged framework for dealing with China: Illegal competition --> IP theft Intense, but legal competition --> cheaper products on a quality-adjusted basis Unfair competition --> State-backed cost of capital

The Economist: How to help places hurt by globalisation

From back in October, a fantastic two-part write-up (Leaders piece + long-form essay) by The Economist on globalization and how to cushion the economic blow for disaffected regions. In summary: Prior to full-scale globalization regional inequality would converge over time between and within industrialized nations as investment dollars would flow to cheaper, undervalued regions; poor …

Neenah, Wisconsin: Trade & Climate Policy

Great write-up in The New York Times today on the effects on unfair trade practices, and how spot on, at minimum from a political perspective, Trump was to zero in on trade. Four paragraphs in, the money quote (my emphasis in bold): "Take Neenah Foundry, a 145-year-old operation that employs nearly 1,000 workers here. Its …

2018: The Year of Trade

Daily "news" consumption is increasingly deemed an unnecessary waste of highly partisan time. I vehemently disagree. Entrenched news organizations such as The New York Times, The Washington Post and The Wall Street Journal attack each major topic of the day/week/month with such ferocity that it is impossible to not learn an enormous amount about any …